NCAA Women's Tournament Picks: March Madness Predictions
Let's take a look at my NCAA women's tournament picks for all 4 regions of the March Madness bracket. I'll start with the Greensboro region, then cover the Spokane region, followed by the New Orleans region, and finally the Oklahoma City region. Before I get to my NCAA women's tournament picks, I want to point out some trends and history regarding the women's tourney:
In five of the last eight years the women's Final Four has been totally comprised of 1 and 2 seeds.
In four of the last six years the women's Final Four has had three number 1 seeds involved.
Number 1 seeds have won 18 out of 26 women's basketball national championships since 1982. Number 2 seeds have won 6 championships. Number 3 seeds won have 2 championships.
In five of the last eight years the women's Final Four has been totally comprised of 1 and 2 seeds.
In four of the last six years the women's Final Four has had three number 1 seeds involved.
Number 1 seeds have won 18 out of 26 women's basketball national championships since 1982. Number 2 seeds have won 6 championships. Number 3 seeds won have 2 championships.
Tennessee has been to the women's Final Four six times since 1998.
Connecticut has won 4 women's national championships so far this century.
LSU has been to the women's Final Four in each of the last four years but has not advanced to the championship game during that stretch.
Maryland won the women's national championship in 2006.
Tennessee won the women's national championship in 2007.
The Pac-10 has not placed a team in the women's Final Four since 1997.
Including and since the 2004 NCAA women's tournament, there has been an average of 4 first round upsets excluding 9 seeds beating 8 seeds.
Based on the information above, the tournament seedings and regions, and what I know about this year's teams, I feel confident that this will be a year where the women's Final Four is again comprised of 1 and 2 seeds. In fact with the exception of the Oklahoma City region I went ahead and advanced all the number 1 and 2 seeds to the Elite 8 without too much thought at all. I put a little more thought into the potential Texas A&M vs Duke matchup in the Oklahoma City region and I'll reveal my pick for that game further below. One final note: After looking over the entire bracket I went ahead and advanced all 1 thru 5 seeds to the second round.
NCAA Women's Tournament Picks - Greenboro Region
First round - UConn, Rutgers, Cal, Virginia, and Old Dominion advance.
Texas vs Minnesota - I'm taking Texas as they have won 5 of 6 while Minnesota has lost 3 of 4.
George Washington vs Auburn - I'm picking GW because they won at Auburn ealier in the season.
Iowa State vs Georgia Tech - Iowa State has higher quality wins than GT. I'm picking the Cyclones.
Second round - UConn and Rutgers advance.
Old Dominion vs Virginia - OD has won 23 of 24 games so I'm picking the Lady Monarchs.
George Washington vs. Cal - I'm picking GW because they beat Auburn, Virginia, Texas A&M, & Western Ky this year.
Sweet 16 and Elite 8 - I have UConn and Rutgers making the Elite 8 with UConn going on to the women's Final Four. UConn has one loss on the year and it was at Rutgers by 2 points. UConn got revenge by beating Rutgers by 20 on March 3.
NCAA Women's Tournament Picks - Spokane Region
First round - Maryland, Stanford, Baylor, Vanderbilt, and West Virginia advance.
Nebraska vs Xavier - I'm picking Xavier who won the A10 tourney and beat George Washington and Georgia during the season. Nebraska had a few losses toward the end of the regular season.
Pittsburgh vs Wyoming - Pitt has recent wins against Notre Dame and West Virginia so I'm going with the Panthers.
UTEP vs Western Kentucky - UTEP lost in the C-USA tourney final while Western Ky won the Sun Belt tourney. I'm picking Western Kentucky.
Second Round - Maryland and Stanford advance.
West Virginia vs Vanderbilt - I'm picking Vandy because they beat Georgia twice plus Duke.
Pittsburgh vs Baylor - I'm taking Pitt because of their recent wins over Notre Dame and West Virginia coupled with the fact Baylor has lost 3 straight.
Sweet 16 and Elite 8 - I have Maryland and Stanford making the Elite 8 with Maryland advancing to the women's Final Four. Maryland beat Oklahoma, Notre Dame, LSU, Pitt, Ohio State, and Duke(twice) this year. The Pac-10 has not had a women's Final Four representative since 1997.
NCAA Women's Tournament Picks - New Orleans Region
First round - North Carolina, LSU, Oklahoma State, Louisville, and Kansas State advance. I'm a little nervous about Kansas State because their leading scorer is out for the season and the Wildcats' opponent is Chattanooga who has won 24 straight games.
Georgia vs Iowa - I'm taking the Bulldogs because the SEC is a stronger conference than the Big Ten.
Ohio State vs Florida State - I'm sticking with the Buckeyes but I'm not overly confident in this one since Ohio State lost to Illinois(9th in Big Ten) in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten women's tourney(second time they lost to Illinois this year).
Marist vs Depaul - I'm picking DePaul in the upset because they beat Notre Dame and West Virginia and lost to Connecticut by just 1 point.
Second round - North Carolina, LSU, Lousiville, and Oklahoma State advance.
Sweet 16 and Elite 8 - I have North Carolina and LSU making the Elite 8 with LSU advancing to their 5th straight women's Final Four. LSU vs North Carolina is the toughest Elite 8 pick to make. Game could go either way. I like the fact LSU won at Tennessee so I'm giving the edge to the Tigers.
NCAA Women's Tournament Picks - Oklahoma City Region
First round - Tennessee, Texas A&M, Duke, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame advance.
Utah vs Purdue - I'm picking Purdue because they won the Big Ten women's tourney while Utah lost to a 3-27 team in the first round of the MWC tourney.
Arizona State vs Temple - I'm picking the Sun Devils as they beat everybody in the Pac-10 twice except Stanford & Cal.
Syracuse vs Hartford - I'm picking Syracuse as they went 10-6 in the Big East. Hartford scored 24 points vs UConn.
Second round - Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Duke advance.
Notre Dame vs Oklahoma - A very solid matchup. I'm picking Oklahoma because they have higher quality wins.
Sweet 16 and Elite 8 - I have Tennessee advancing to the Elite 8 for sure. Duke vs Texas A&M would be a great game. I'm picking Texas A&M because they won the Big 12 women's tourney and have won 13 of 14 inclduing victories over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State(twice), and Baylor.
NCAA Women's Tournament Picks - Final Four and National Championship
I'm picking Connecticut over Maryland and Tennessee over LSU in the women's Final Four. UConn won the Big East regular season and tourney championships while Maryland won neither of those in the ACC. LSU won at Tennessee earlier in the year, but Tennessee paid the Tigers back in the SEC women's tourney finals. Connecticut and Tennessee did not play each other during the season and I predict they will match up in the women's national championship game. I pick Connecticut to beat Tennessee for the title. Connecticut beat Stanford and won at LSU. Tennessee lost at Stanford and lost at home to LSU by 16 points. The Huskies will win their 6th women's basketball national championship.
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Connecticut has won 4 women's national championships so far this century.
LSU has been to the women's Final Four in each of the last four years but has not advanced to the championship game during that stretch.
Maryland won the women's national championship in 2006.
Tennessee won the women's national championship in 2007.
The Pac-10 has not placed a team in the women's Final Four since 1997.
Including and since the 2004 NCAA women's tournament, there has been an average of 4 first round upsets excluding 9 seeds beating 8 seeds.
Based on the information above, the tournament seedings and regions, and what I know about this year's teams, I feel confident that this will be a year where the women's Final Four is again comprised of 1 and 2 seeds. In fact with the exception of the Oklahoma City region I went ahead and advanced all the number 1 and 2 seeds to the Elite 8 without too much thought at all. I put a little more thought into the potential Texas A&M vs Duke matchup in the Oklahoma City region and I'll reveal my pick for that game further below. One final note: After looking over the entire bracket I went ahead and advanced all 1 thru 5 seeds to the second round.
NCAA Women's Tournament Picks - Greenboro Region
First round - UConn, Rutgers, Cal, Virginia, and Old Dominion advance.
Texas vs Minnesota - I'm taking Texas as they have won 5 of 6 while Minnesota has lost 3 of 4.
George Washington vs Auburn - I'm picking GW because they won at Auburn ealier in the season.
Iowa State vs Georgia Tech - Iowa State has higher quality wins than GT. I'm picking the Cyclones.
Second round - UConn and Rutgers advance.
Old Dominion vs Virginia - OD has won 23 of 24 games so I'm picking the Lady Monarchs.
George Washington vs. Cal - I'm picking GW because they beat Auburn, Virginia, Texas A&M, & Western Ky this year.
Sweet 16 and Elite 8 - I have UConn and Rutgers making the Elite 8 with UConn going on to the women's Final Four. UConn has one loss on the year and it was at Rutgers by 2 points. UConn got revenge by beating Rutgers by 20 on March 3.
NCAA Women's Tournament Picks - Spokane Region
First round - Maryland, Stanford, Baylor, Vanderbilt, and West Virginia advance.
Nebraska vs Xavier - I'm picking Xavier who won the A10 tourney and beat George Washington and Georgia during the season. Nebraska had a few losses toward the end of the regular season.
Pittsburgh vs Wyoming - Pitt has recent wins against Notre Dame and West Virginia so I'm going with the Panthers.
UTEP vs Western Kentucky - UTEP lost in the C-USA tourney final while Western Ky won the Sun Belt tourney. I'm picking Western Kentucky.
Second Round - Maryland and Stanford advance.
West Virginia vs Vanderbilt - I'm picking Vandy because they beat Georgia twice plus Duke.
Pittsburgh vs Baylor - I'm taking Pitt because of their recent wins over Notre Dame and West Virginia coupled with the fact Baylor has lost 3 straight.
Sweet 16 and Elite 8 - I have Maryland and Stanford making the Elite 8 with Maryland advancing to the women's Final Four. Maryland beat Oklahoma, Notre Dame, LSU, Pitt, Ohio State, and Duke(twice) this year. The Pac-10 has not had a women's Final Four representative since 1997.
NCAA Women's Tournament Picks - New Orleans Region
First round - North Carolina, LSU, Oklahoma State, Louisville, and Kansas State advance. I'm a little nervous about Kansas State because their leading scorer is out for the season and the Wildcats' opponent is Chattanooga who has won 24 straight games.
Georgia vs Iowa - I'm taking the Bulldogs because the SEC is a stronger conference than the Big Ten.
Ohio State vs Florida State - I'm sticking with the Buckeyes but I'm not overly confident in this one since Ohio State lost to Illinois(9th in Big Ten) in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten women's tourney(second time they lost to Illinois this year).
Marist vs Depaul - I'm picking DePaul in the upset because they beat Notre Dame and West Virginia and lost to Connecticut by just 1 point.
Second round - North Carolina, LSU, Lousiville, and Oklahoma State advance.
Sweet 16 and Elite 8 - I have North Carolina and LSU making the Elite 8 with LSU advancing to their 5th straight women's Final Four. LSU vs North Carolina is the toughest Elite 8 pick to make. Game could go either way. I like the fact LSU won at Tennessee so I'm giving the edge to the Tigers.
NCAA Women's Tournament Picks - Oklahoma City Region
First round - Tennessee, Texas A&M, Duke, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame advance.
Utah vs Purdue - I'm picking Purdue because they won the Big Ten women's tourney while Utah lost to a 3-27 team in the first round of the MWC tourney.
Arizona State vs Temple - I'm picking the Sun Devils as they beat everybody in the Pac-10 twice except Stanford & Cal.
Syracuse vs Hartford - I'm picking Syracuse as they went 10-6 in the Big East. Hartford scored 24 points vs UConn.
Second round - Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Duke advance.
Notre Dame vs Oklahoma - A very solid matchup. I'm picking Oklahoma because they have higher quality wins.
Sweet 16 and Elite 8 - I have Tennessee advancing to the Elite 8 for sure. Duke vs Texas A&M would be a great game. I'm picking Texas A&M because they won the Big 12 women's tourney and have won 13 of 14 inclduing victories over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State(twice), and Baylor.
NCAA Women's Tournament Picks - Final Four and National Championship
I'm picking Connecticut over Maryland and Tennessee over LSU in the women's Final Four. UConn won the Big East regular season and tourney championships while Maryland won neither of those in the ACC. LSU won at Tennessee earlier in the year, but Tennessee paid the Tigers back in the SEC women's tourney finals. Connecticut and Tennessee did not play each other during the season and I predict they will match up in the women's national championship game. I pick Connecticut to beat Tennessee for the title. Connecticut beat Stanford and won at LSU. Tennessee lost at Stanford and lost at home to LSU by 16 points. The Huskies will win their 6th women's basketball national championship.
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